German election: Conservatives emerge as largest party

The conservative Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) have gained the highest percentage of seats in the German election with 29%, exit polls show.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) were the runners-up with 19.5% and coming in third were the center-left Social Democrats with 16%.

However, the election of Germany's new chancellor by the Bundestag won't take place until a governing coalition has been formed. This could take months.

If these initial projections hold, CDU/CSU candidate Friedrich Merz could now be the frontrunner to succeed Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

How long does it take to form a coalition?
The process could take weeks, or even months. In 2017, coalition negotiations took the longest amount of time in German history, leaving the country without a government for almost six months. However, if the political priorities of the partners are more closely aligned, and only two parties are involved instead of three, things can go much more quickly.

Germany's colorful coalition shorthand
Foreign flags and even traffic lights are used to describe the various coalitions that emerge in German elections. Coalitions are common under Germany's proportional representation system.
The Conservatives black combined with the traditional red of the political left is the color code when the Christian Democrats govern in a "grand coalition" with the Social Democrats. This combination of Germany's two "big tent" parties, was in power first from 1966-69 and most recently for eight years until 2021, led by then-Chancellor Angela Merkel.
The Conservatives black combined with the traditional red of the political left is the color code when the Christian Democrats govern in a "grand coalition" with the Social Democrats. This combination of Germany's two "big tent" parties, was in power first from 1966-69 and most recently for eight years until 2021, led by then-Chancellor Angela Merkel.
The conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has teamed up with the ecologist Greens in several German states cooperating smoothly at the regional level. On the national level the two parties see eye to eye especially on strong support for Ukraine. They disagree on nuclear and renewable energy, and many conservatives despise the Greens for their multicultural and "woke" positions.
From 2021-2025 Germany was governed by a center-left coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), ecologist Greens, and free-market-oriented neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP), whose color is yellow. The government known as "Ampel" (traffic light) in Germany, started out as a self-declared "Fortschrittskoalition" (progress coalition) but got mired in infighting and became the least popular government ever.
If the center-right CDU/CSU fails to be able to forge a two-way coalition, teaming up with the Greens and the center-left SPD may be the only option for a comfortable majority. It has been tested on a regional level: The eastern German state of Saxony was governed by such a coalition until 2024, when it failed to get a new mandate.
The neoliberal FDP has been junior coalition partner to both the center-right CDU/CSU and the center-left SPD on the national level. A three-way coalition was forged on the state level, for example in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt. The FDP's drop in support in regional elections and opinion polls, however, makes it an unlikely partner for the federal government.
A three-way deal between the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), the Greens and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP), did not come about at the national level in 2017 after the FDP called off talks. It has been tested at a state level. But the recent three-way national government saw the FDP and Green positions as irreconcilable and mutual animosity would seem almost impossible to overcome.
Since 2018 Bavaria's Christian Social Union (CSU) has been governing with the Free Voters (FV), whose color is Orange. The FV is a grass-roots populist and far-right-leaning party and is led by its controversial chairman Hubert Aiwanger. Strong in rural areas of southern and eastern Germany, the Freie Wähler is seeking a larger role at the national level and currently has three MEPs.
In graphics showing opinion polls, the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is shown in violet. That may be fitting, as it combines socialist, far-left (red) with populist right wing (blue) ideas in its platform. Although the party was only founded in 2024, it is doing so well in the eastern German states that it may well be asked to join coalition governments. Possibly led by the CDU (Black).
CDU (black), SPD (red) and BSW (violet). The new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance's (BSW) color violet, seems fitting as it combines socialist, far-left (red) with populist right wing (blue) ideas in its platform. Although the party was only founded in 2024, it did so well in the eastern German states that it entered a coalition government with the SPD and CDU in the state of Thuringia.