The United States has grand plans in the Caucasus

As Iran convulses from domestic upheaval and the Trump administration contemplates military strikes, the United States has also been quietly yet meaningfully ramping up its engagement with two countries north of Iran: Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Trump administration has been deeply involved in diplomatic meditation between the two long-term enemies, building on U.S. efforts to enhance economic links in the strategically important Caucasus region through international trade and infrastructure development. U.S. efforts there may point to it handling other crises around the world, as well as managing strategic competition with both Russia and China, Foreign Policy reports.

Talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan made slow and steady progress, including tackling issues such as border delimitation and easing hurdles to trade. It was the return of the Trump administration in late 2024 that accelerated the peace process. As part of U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to burnish his diplomatic and peacemaking credentials, both countries sought to obtain U.S. backing and support for their efforts. Last August, both Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Pashinyan joined Trump at the White House, where they held a high-profile ceremony to sign a peace deal, including a mutual declaration that the two were headed for the final ratification of a deal that would end the long-standing conflict.

A crucial component of the 2025 agreement was the creation of a major transit corridor, which will be named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). The U.S.-backed infrastructure project will link Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan through Armenian territory via road, rail, and pipeline. According to the announcement, the United States will have exclusive development rights in the area for 99 years, and the most recent discussions have focused on the United States owning a 74 percent share in the TRIPP Development Company, with Armenia retaining the remaining stake.

Though the territory in question is relatively small (spanning just 26 miles), the regional connectivity implications are potentially massive. Not only is the Caucasus region rich in energy resources like oil and natural gas (as is Central Asia just across the Caspian Sea), but it also sits on a major transit point. Azerbaijan already exports its oil and gas to Turkey and further on to Europe, serving as an important source of diversification for Europe’s energy reliance on Russia. The corridor could also provide a shorter passage for transporting critical natural resources from Central Asia, including rare-earth minerals, to Western markets.

However, there are several challenges that could complicate U.S. engagement in the Caucasus, particularly in the form of expanding infrastructure connectivity via the TRIPP and other projects. The first is that the diplomatic normalization process between Armenia and Azerbaijan has yet to be formally concluded. A key event to watch will be Armenia’s parliamentary elections in June. While poll numbers show that Pashinyan’s ruling party is currently in the lead, there are still opposition groups within Armenia and abroad that will make the election a vital test for Pashinyan and the peace agenda.

Another challenge comes from external actors. Russia has made no secret of its opposition to East-West connectivity projects in the Caucasus, especially those that serve to supplant its role as a major energy provider and transit country and those that involve Western nations like the United States.

Many players have their own interests in shaping the region. U.S. efforts to help normalize ties between Armenia and Azerbaijan and advance the TRIPP will serve as a crucial hinge for Eurasian geopolitics—and a potential model for efforts elsewhere.