The US Intelligence Community: There are still hurdles to the final conclusion of a peace deal

There are still hurdles to the final conclusion of a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This is stated in the "2026 Annual Threat Assessment" report published by the US Intelligence Community.

"The U.S.-sponsored Peace Summit on 8 August between Armenia and Azerbaijan has created an opportunity for the two countries to establish a lasting peace deal and contributed to increasing regional stability. The results of the Peace Summit included a provisional agreement on the terms of a peace treaty and plans to establish the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), managed by the U.S., that will connect Azerbaijan to its exclave of Naxcivan across southern Armenia, unlocking trade flows for both nations and the region.
These developments represent a significant change in direction for Armenian–Azerbaijani relations. In 2020 and 2023, Azerbaijan militarily established control on Nagorno-Karabakh
region.
Since 8 August, both sides have appeared willing to maintain the momentum from the Peace Summit. Border ceasefire violations between Armenia and Azerbaijan have plummeted and now are almost nonexistent. In October 2025, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced that Azerbaijan had lifted restrictions on cargo transit through Azerbaijan to Armenia, a move that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan reciprocated within days. Since then, Azerbaijan has shipped gasoline and permitted transshipments of wheat to Armenia. There are still hurdles to the final conclusion of a peace deal. For example, President Aliyev continues to insist that Armenia change its constitution to remove a reference that he characterizes as claiming Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Armenia, a step which would require Armenia to hold a constitutional referendum whose passage is not guaranteed".