Why Russia Sees a Window to Bomb Ukraine Into Submission

Russia has prepared a plan according to which it aims to disable Ukraine's energy system in one month, cutting off Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa from power, water and heating.

Source: The New York Times

Details: Reports indicate that journalists have gained access to an intercepted Russian attack plan, which Kyiv shared with European officials last month.
Based on the plan's estimates, Russia would require approximately 70 ballistic missiles, 720 long-range UAVs and 150 guided bombs to deprive the cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa of water, electricity and heating.

This is roughly the number of ballistic missiles and drones that manage to bypass Ukrainian air defences on a monthly basis, according to an analysis of Ukrainian Air Force data.

Essentially, this implies that Moscow believes one month of strikes can achieve what four winters of attacks have failed to do – destroy Ukraine's energy grid.

Russia's confidence is largely driven by Ukraine's lack of air defence systems, primarily Patriot interceptors.

Alyona Hetmanchuk, Ukraine's ambassador to NATO, stated that her current list of requests to partners includes air-to-air missiles for fighter jets to shoot down jet-powered drones, as well as medium-range anti-aircraft missile systems, which have also proven effective.

It is noted that Ukraine has repeatedly called for a limited ceasefire focusing on energy facilities or port infrastructure, arguing that this would be in the interests of both sides, but Russia has refused.

If Russia's attack plan is successful, Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa would lose 90% of their electrical capacity, have their heating supplies fall by 90%, and suffer severe disruptions to their water and sewage systems.