Kazakhstan's Largest Refineries Refuse to Supply Gasoline to Russia Due to Sanction Risks

In July, the Kazakh Ministry of Energy allowed the Pavlodar Refinery, the second-most powerful in the country, to supply 17.5 thousand tons of AI-92 gasoline to Russia. In August, the Atyrau Refinery received a similar quota. The capacity of both enterprises is about 5.5 million tons of oil refining per year.

However, the fuel owners decided not to send gasoline to the Russian market. Among the main reasons, they cite problems with settlements through Russian banks and the risk of falling under Western sanctions. According to one source, no one wants to risk sanctions.

Furthermore, Kazakhstan itself is currently experiencing a shortage of motor fuel. Demand is seasonally high, and neighboring countries are also facing a gasoline deficit.

Only a small refinery, "Kondensat," with a capacity of about 850 thousand tons per year, agreed to supply fuel to Russia. In July, it exported 9 thousand tons of gasoline to Russia. In August, the plant received its first batch of Russian oil by rail — 4.1 thousand tons. Previously, the enterprise purchased oil from "Tatneft."

At the same time, Kazakh gasoline is too expensive for Russian buyers. The price of AI-92 gasoline from the Atyrau Refinery is about 1100-1200 dollars per ton, which is approximately 43% higher than the current exchange price in Russia.

The fuel situation in Russia remains tense. According to estimates, domestic gasoline production compensates for only about two-thirds of internal demand. Since the beginning of the year, Ukrainian drones have attacked Russian refineries more than 70 times. As of early August, at least 18 plants were completely idle or only partially loaded, and in the past four weeks, five more refineries completely stopped fuel production.

According to Rystad Energy, oil refining volumes in Russia are currently about 30% below the seasonal norm, totaling about 4 million barrels per day. In September, a significant increase in domestic production and thus the elimination of the deficit, according to industry estimates, will not be possible.